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SOU 1999:46	1

2 Bakgrund och syfte

Det är allmänt känt att socialbidragen har ökat kraftigt under 1990-talet. I figur 1.1 redovisas denna utveckling.

Figur 1.1 Utbetalda socialbidrag under åren 1990–1997

Miljarder kronor i 1997 års penningvärde

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997

Av figuren framgår det att kostnaderna för socialbidrag i reala termer har ökat från knappt 6 miljarder kronor 1990, till drygt 12 miljarder kronor 1997. Kostnaderna har alltså mer än fördubblats under de aktuella åren.

De kraftiga försämringarna av den offentliga ekonomin och arbetsmarknaden har under 1990-talet förändrat förutsättningarna för hushållen. Som ett led i den statliga budgetsaneringen sänktes nivåerna i de statliga transfereringarna och beskattningen av hushållen ökade. Höga krav på arbetskraften i kombination med för få arbetstillfällen har marginaliserat vissa grupper av befolkningen eller t.o.m. ställt dem utanför arbetslivet. Den höga flyktinginvandringen har dessutom ökat utbudet av

2 Bakgrund och syfte	SOU 1999:46

s.k. svårplacerad arbetskraft. Sammantaget ledde dessa förändringar dessutom till att de disponibla inkomsterna minskade och att kostnaderna för socialbidrag ökade.

Denna utveckling berörs i direktiven till utredningen. Där sägs exempelvis att utredningen ska analysera sambanden mellan socialbidragen och övriga delar av trygghetssystemet utifrån de olika övergripande förändringar som skett i samhället under 1990-talet. Där sägs också att utredningen ska lämna förslag till hur verksamheten inom individ- och familjeomsorgen kan förändras så att den bättre överensstämmer den avsedda funktionen att stödja enskilda med ett individuellt bistånd som är föranlett av tillfälliga sociala eller ekonomiska problem.

Det ena syftet med denna studie har därför varit att klargöra hur inkomstförhållandena för olika typer av hushåll har utvecklats under 1990- talet. Särskilt har det fästs vikt vid hur de samlade förändringarna påverkat nivån på de utbetalda socialbidragen.

Ett annat syfte har varit att identifiera och på olika sätt beskriva grupper i befolkningen som har ett långvarigt beroende av socialbidrag. Detta bör kunna utgöra ett bra underlag för formuleringen av förslag som minskar det långvariga beoendet av socialbidrag.

Ett tredje syfte har varit att belysa sambanden mellan statens kostnader för trygghetssystemet och kommunernas kostnader för socialbidragen. Närmast har syftet varit att belysa vilka merkostnader för den samlade offentliga sektorn olika statliga alternativ till socialbidrag skulle kunna leda till.

SOU 1999:46	1

3 Något om hur studien har gjorts

3.1Datauppgifter

De datauppgifter vi har tillgängliga för våra statistiska bearbetningar sträcker sig till år 1996. De allra senaste årens utveckling med höjda transfereringar till hushållen och en ljusning på arbetsmarknad kan därför endast behandlas genom simuleringar. Simuleringarna innebär att vi vid beräkningarna använder såväl faktiska som antagna inkomster för de hushåll som görs föremål för beräkningarna.

De statistiska beräkningarna har gjorts med hjälp av SCBs årliga undersökning Hushållens Inkomster (HINK) och med en Longitudinell Individ Databas (LINDA), som är registerbaserad och också den skapad och underhållen vid SCB.

Den första databasen (HINK) har använts för att avläsa inkomstförhållandena för olika typer av hushåll de aktuella åren. Databasen är av tvärsnittskaraktär, vilket innebär att förhållandena under ett givet år redovisas. Det är med andra ord inte möjligt att i något avseende följa enskilda hushålls utveckling över tiden.

Det urval som används för studien är något begränsat i förhållande till det ursprungliga urvalet. Syftet är att få en bättre bild av inkomstförhållandena ur ett helårsperspektiv. Det innebär exempelvis att man försökt utesluta individer och hushåll som vistats i Sverige endast delar av det aktuella året.

Den andra databasen (LINDA) däremot gör det möjligt att observera förhållanden som sträcker sig över flera år. Exempelvis har vi använt databasen för att följa de hushåll som har ett beroende av socialbidrag som sträcker sig över flera år.

Vi har använt datauppgifter från åren före och efter den stora skattereform som genomfördes åren 1991 och 1992. Detta medför att jämförbarheten över åren inte är fullständig.

2 Något om de metoder som använts	SOU 1999:46

3.2Metoder

En metod är ren statistisk beskrivning. Till väsentlig del består denna rapport av redovisningar av samband mellan olika inkomstslag och socialbidrag för olika typer av hushåll. De data som nämnts ovan är organiserade så att det är möjligt att föra olika inkomstslag till specifika hushåll. Detta innebär att det är möjligt att på hushållsnivå fastställa hur olika inkomster förhåller sig till varandra. Det är exempelvis möjligt att observera hur omfattningen av socialbidrag förhåller sig till arbetsinkomster eller inkomster från statliga transfereringar, uppgifter som är av särskilt intresse för Socialtjänstutredningen.

En annan metod är Typhushåll. De gör det möjligt att särskilt studera effekterna av regeländringar.

En tredje metod är simuleringar på mikronivå. Vi har använt simuleringar för att få en uppfattning om sambanden mellan olika statliga försörjningsalternativ och socialbidragen.

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